Bush, a Lame Duck President?

Even as this is being written on the day before Thanksgiving in 2004, barely three weeks after George W. Bush was triumphantly reelected president, the question has arisen, is he a lame duck? Of course not; there just some inflammation in his joints. Being the leader of the sole hyper power in the world just ain’t easy.

As I type, two House of Representatives committee chairmen are refusing to roll over and pass the intelligence reform legislation being pushed by the 9/11 Commission and at least nominally supported by the president. This legislation has broad support among the voters and in both houses of Congress, but the military objects to it and the Chair of the House Committee with oversight responsibility is digging in his heels. The other Chairman objects that the legislation does not defend our porous borders and that, as a result the bill is a sham.

The Secretary of Defense states that he is on board with the president’s position on the legislation and that the military is acting independently, as required by law. Yeah, right! The president didn’t want this legislation and his tepid support reflects it. This bill will require his active support and the use of some that political capital that he was bragging about just days ago.

The Republicans on the Hill are moving away from George Bush. The wartime president has too much power and the legislature is moving to reclaim some of its power. The Executive has had its way for a long time, and the Congress – both parties – is moving to cut it down to size. Too bad, George!

So I guess the Prez is just saving his energy and capital for those major items that he’s been jawing about so happily for months like Social Security reform and permanent changes in the tax code that will favor that great Ownership Society of his. If the skirmishing on the intelligence bill is any indication, the going on his major interests may resemble the slogging in Iraq. Holy cow! This president stuff isn’t so easy or nearly so much fun as it looked the day after the election.

My guess is that George W. Bush will soon set his mind on becoming a statesman. Like most second term presidents since passage of the twenty-second amendment to the Constitution that limits Mr. Bush to two terms and which has weakened all two term presidents and has turned them outward to seek success, this president will soon turn to being his own Secretary of State.

Oh, but I forgot, he’s got many of our friends and a goodly number of our opponents and all of our potential enemies in a dither. He’s also got a few problems with his back. The invasion of Iraq has severely undermined the credibility of this administration both at home and abroad. Where are those WMDs that Colin Powell so clearly demonstrated to the Security Council? They weren’t there? Goodness.

At this moment, we face the other two elements of the Axis of Evil without the credibility to seek international or domestic support to prevent their loading up with WMDs. Can we sell the citizenry that we should overthrow the cruel mullahs of Iran? Not likely. Besides, even the neocons seem to have had enough swashbuckling for a while – a generation at least.

Then Mr. Bush has the problem of budgeting for defense. Everyone agrees that we are in a war with the terrorists and that we have to gear up to destroy them. But with what he’s already wrought with his tax cuts, the less than completely robust national economy, our massive trade deficit, and the War in Iraq means that our war on terror will call for some reprogramming of the defense budget.

Clearly, the idea of the neocons and the Defense Secretary that we can deal with situations like Iraq with fewer `boots on the ground’ is badly tarnished. Only the stubbornness of the Administration prevents an admission that we didn’t have enough troops in Iraq.

`Boots on the Ground’ create lots of problems. Troops cost money, lots of it. Troops provide very little in the way of big bucks and pork for defense contractors. Missile systems produce billions in revenue. The same goes for other high tech solutions to keeping potential national adversaries at bay. But whipping al Qaeda calls for `boots on the ground’.

`Boots on the ground’ create the need for many things in the defense budget. But military payroll, boots and shoes, small arms ammunition, body armor, and meals ready to eat are hardly the things to warm the cockles of the hearts of the military industrial complex. Sorry, George.

So what have we here? A newly elected president with a mandate to pursue all of those things he talked about in his winning campaign faces his second term. Karl Rove got you elected – you said it. Your tax cuts have worked and will continue to work after you make them permanent. Supply side economics will solve the budget and trade deficits – you said so.

Everyone is behind you now. Well at least they’ve all stepped back. Whew! Good luck to you, Mr. President. You might want to check with your doctor about that heat and the creaking in your hips and knees.