Look At It This Way

Let’s look at Iraq from a different perspective. How long will we be there? Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld – rightly, in my judgment - says that no one can accurately predict how long the coalition forces will be required to stay. That said, a number of variables have not been considered, at least publicly.

The President has said that we’ll stay only as long as we’re needed and no longer. He’s also said that if the legitimate Iraqi government asks us to leave, the United States will honor the decision. That sounds very good, even hopeful, but there are things in the background that have not been fully vetted for the public.

One of the most important reasons for our intercession in Iraq - as compared for example: to our reticence in Sudan – was the oil. When the constitutional government of Iraq is up and running next year, there is likely to be great pressure from the population and many power centers for the coalition to be sent home. That seems normal enough. But one thing I’ve learned about government – we could call it a law of nature – is that those in power do everything they can to remain in power. That goes for democracies, plutocracies, tyrannies, monarchies, and any other form or philosophy of government that one can conceive.

A year from now the newly formed government in Iraq will be hearing from all sides that they should kick us out of the country. Fair enough. That government will also find – I’m absolutely certain – that there is great interest in how the nation’s oil will be controlled and the income from it distributed. That means that major players not in power would like to be and that should be no surprise to anyone. What does that mean for the coalition? A long stay in Iraq would be my guess.

The new government will not ask us to leave until and unless it is certain of its ability to maintain power. The lives and riches of literally tens of thousands of people will depend on the government's ability to maintain its grip on power and on the spigot of the great national natural resource, oil. It is the simply the nature of human beings to act this way. The government will have Iraqis – encouraged by the tribal and political structure from within the country and by foreign powers – conspiring to overthrow it and to redistribute power and riches in a different manner. The rule of law and that beautiful new constitution be damned.

The whiff of conspiracies designed to kick the legitimate government from power and to seize the wealth of the nation will force the government to act with an abundance of caution as it relates to the protecting coalition. That critics of the Bush Administration scream for and will raise their voices still higher for a timetable means little. We have chosen to ride this tiger, and we will have to remain mounted until the new government in Baghdad is supremely confident of its ability to maintain itself.

I have opposed this war since it was but a gleam in the eyes of these foolish neoconservatives, but all with an ounce of realism about them must see that there is no choice but for the coalition to stay. It is sad that the government of the U.S. did not think this through, but we’re going to continue suffering casualties and pouring treasure into the desert sand for a very long time, and none of this will raise our standing in the Muslim world.

There were no weapons of mass destruction. Reprehensible as the government of Saddam was, it posed no threat to our national security. The war on terror has worsened as a result of this fiasco. None the less, we must no go on indefinitely.

Despite the president’s great skill at diverting us from reality, Iraq is and will remain our greatest problem for the indefinite future. Sadly, it is keeping us from dealing with terror and economic problems of great concern.

It is a terribly sad situation that these neocons have gotten us into

Blog on!

Wild Bill