Just You Wait and See

Assume for a moment that George Bush is correct in his solutions to all things Middle Eastern, terrorism, and Iraqi. I read something in the last couple of days which indicted that he and Tony Blair are convinced the approach they are taking in that part of the world will be borne out, even if the time frame is no longer the short term they began with but extends out many decades, but those of us alive in this time may not be around when this great vindication comes about. In fact, the remainder of the six billion of us here is likely to be a small minority of those walking the planet after the middle of this century when conditions are supposed to reveal whether George and Tony are owed a debt of gratitude. Timing is everything.

Suppose that by the halfway mark of this century that democracy is indeed, making headway in the Middle East and the Muslim world in general. How much of this will those alive ascribe to the wise policies of George and Tony as compared with the normal course of events?

The United States and The United Kingdom are investing huge amounts of capital – human and fiscal – to advance the cause of freedom across the globe in our time expecting a huge payback in another era. Much of the world sees that investment as narrow self interest and an example of American imperial hubris.

The bottom line question is: how great an input of present resources is worth the long term payout predicted? We all make such calculation in our lives. Parents and talented offspring must decide whether postponing personal gratification for twelve or more years for medical training is worth the price in prestige and income likely to result from this great input of time and money on the front end. How much present sacrifice should we make to assure secure retirements? Such choices are made every day.

And nations make these calculations as well. For example, after WW II our leaders had to decide whether to invest billions dollars in the reconstruction of Europe was worth the sacrifice in the face of the threat of Soviet expansionism. The Marshall Plan was approved in the belief that the investment would save lives, capital, and quality of life down the road. It was; the Western countries recovered quickly and stood with us in the containment of the Eastern Block. This is looked back upon as one of the great investments in American history.

President Bush looks back to President Truman’s experience and the great rehabilitation of Harry’s reputation as his model. There is, however, a misreading of history in this. While Truman did lead in the restoration of Europe and is remembered fondly for it, his reputation had suffered not at all for that decision but for his bold move in standing up to communist adventurism in Korea. After an initial surge of public approval, Truman began his drift downward as his drive to restore the approximate balance on the Korean Peninsula became extremely unpopular. At the time, his political critics wanted a far more aggressive response, including a nuclear confrontation with China.

Truman held firm on a policy of world wide containment of the communists, and from the low point his reputation was restored quite rapidly to the high level of approval that he bears in history. By the time of President Kennedy, Truman’s rehabilitation was virtually complete – not much longer than a decade.

In Bush’s case, citizens of the United States backed him without reservation when he proclaimed war on the terrorists who had attacked us on 9/11. His orders to take the fight to al Qaeda and the Taliban government in Afghanistan were supported by almost every American. A clear connection among the Taliban, al Qaeda and the attackers of 9/11 was established, and we were prepared for total war upon all of them. It never happened.

We sent a force to topple the Taliban and to capture or kill the al Qaeda members present in the country. But George Bush, the Decider, determined that a more comprehensive approach to terrorism was in order. He said there were weapons of mass destruction available and under development in Iraq and that the government of that country was cooperating with al Qaeda. The Iraq War became inevitable. Unfortunately for Bush – and us - neither WMD nor a connection between Saddam and Osama bin Laden was ever proved and we are an occupying force in a country being torn apart by sectarian strife.

Our mission in Afghanistan was not carried out thoroughly, and we find ourselves supporting a government that does not control all of the country. The vast majority of al Qaeda operatives, including its primary leadership escaped to parts unknown, and the Taliban is has regrouped and is a threat to the current regime.

We have kept Iraq and Syria under pressure. Syria removed itself from Lebanon under great pressure from the international community, especially the U.S. Iraq is alleged – and I believe it - to be developing the capacity to build nuclear weapons and the U.S. and its allies have been applying pressure to stop them, thus far unsuccessfully. In what is alleged to be an Iranian and Syrian inspired plot, Israel was attacked by Hamas from Gaza and by Hezbollah from Lebanon.

Israel responded aggressively in Lebanon and a much wider war is under way. Our Western allies and most of the Sunni Arab and secular Arab states have become very outspoken in favor of a cease fire with Hezbollah which has proven to be a far more formidable foe than was expected. President Bush has backed the Israelis as they moved to destroy Hezbollah, and Bush and Israel find themselves losing ground in world public opinion and, worse, find the effort to take on Hezbollah far more taxing than they thought and now both seem to be for a less than completely satisfactory outcome as compared to two weeks ago.

Bush’s approach to militant Islam bears almost no comparison to the efforts of Harry Truman and his successors through to Bush 41 to contain Soviet expansionism that ultimately fell of its own weight. The flaws in the system were too great to maintain the consent of the governed and the system collapsed.

The present Bush was not content to fight those who attacked us; he was intent on solving all of the problems that created the rise of terrorism. This was undertaken not by investing billions to support economic growth and the rise of freedom but at the point of a gun.

We have lost some 3,000 lives in Iraq and Afghanistan with tens of thousands wounded. Tens of thousands of Iraqis and Afghanistanis have perished and many more have lost their homes and livelihoods. We have spent more than $300 billion with no end in sight.

You may see this playing out happily as in the case of the collective security pursued by the U.S. after W.W.II. I don’t.

It’s four o’clock.

Blog on!

Wild Bill