The Decider's Dubius Decision

Words uttered can never be recalled. If they could, Mel Gibson and Michael Richards would move heaven and earth to change recent events. Actually, we’ve all said things we regret, and, thankfully, with the passage of time and the understanding of those we’ve offended or hurt the impacts have faded. But Richards and Gibson are celebrities and their words went round the world, and they’ll never again be received by their publics in the way they were prior to the transgressions.

Decisions often have similar impact. We ordinary mortals can often move on after making some of our bad decisions and, even if they change our lives, some, even many, bad moves don’t destroy us. But really important decisions made by powerful people can be destructive on their institutions, nations and even the world and by extension destroy them. History and literature are filled with examples going back to the times when deeds and decisions were first recorded.

History seems to be making a comeback in the upper reaches of the government of the U.S. Don Rumsfeld’s last bit public advice was for folks to read history. Leading American generals are now reading the history of Vietnam to seek guidance for our forces in Iraq, and even George Bush may be getting in on the act. The president is famous (or notorious) for not being a reader, but in recent days there have been hints that he’s read – or been briefed – on important events in Southeast Asia during the Vietnam War. Recently, he addressed similarities between the Tet Offensive and our present situation in Iraq.

It is very good that we look to history for lessons that might apply in our circumstances any time we are involved with great ventures, but it’s usually better to do the reading before the deciding. I’m a great fan of history – but not a scholar by any means – and have a healthy respect for what happened in the past as a guide for proposed action. That’s not to say I’m in any way an historicist who sees inevitability in the march of time. In my eighth decade, the world’s experience with Karl Marx’s historicist view of the inevitability of history has lowered the absolutes in this department.

But when big deciders do their thing, the rest of the world better watch out. Hitler, another historicist, decided on war and some sixty million people died. He stuck with his decisions, but in the long run he didn’t have enough resources to win. On the other side of the ocean, Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt made the strategic decisions that ultimately did the Nazis in.

On March 5, 2006, a posting on this blog “The Die is Cast” described one of the most fateful decisions ever made and examined not only the impact of the determination but also the immediate impact of it on the decision maker. Again, I’m an amateur historian so I’m not going spend hours on my references, but as Tricky Dick Nixon used to plead, “Trust me.”

The Die is Cast is a case study of an extraordinary decision, in this case General Dwight Eisenhower’s decision to go forward with the D-Day invasion on June 6, 1944. In short, the invasion was predicated on two major elements: surprise (as to place and time) and on the tides in Normandy. You may recall that a major storm system was battering the coast of France during the days leading up to the narrow window of time when the tides would be appropriate for the landings. If the invasion were to be called off until the next favorable tides some weeks later, the element of surprise might well be lost, and a whole host of logistical problems, including loading up all the men and equipment, that had successfully accomplished might not go nearly as well a second time.

The invasion, perhaps even the war and the future of civilization, hung in the balance. One man alone, Dwight Eisenhower, was charged with the responsibility for the go or no go decision. The story is old, subordinate commanders awaited Ike’s word, Tens of thousands of soldiers, sailors and airmen from the U.S., Great Britain, Canada and other allied nations were fully armed and ready onboard the ships of the greatest armada in human history. Eisenhower was the single most powerful man on the planet that day. Everything depended on his decision.

We all know Ike made the decision, the invasion succeeded, the third front was opened and Hitler’s armies were doomed. But it could have turned out differently had the storm had not abated. But the great and fateful decision was made and the entire venture was no longer in Ike’s hands. Even he could not recall the effort. Once made, on imperfect information like most important decisions, there was no way to undo it. Nine thousand Americans died on the beaches and, had it been a bad one, many more would have succumbed. Yet the switch pulled, Ike was now little more than a powerless observer. But, as I said and as we all know, we won!

So George Bush, that poor student of history, was faced with the decision to send allied forces into Iraq in March of 2003. In the weeks and months leading to the invasion, tens of thousands of troops, many ships, and hundreds of planes made ready to sweep through Iraq and into Baghdad. George Bush always the most powerful man on the planet during his presidency had much of his might focused on one small part of the planet. He alone would make the go/no go decision.

Eisenhower had thought deeply on his responsibility and had even prepared a note to his president and the peoples of the allied nations assuming full responsibility for the failure of the invasion. He knew his role and responsibility and the pros and cons of his decision. He knew that had it been a bad decision that thousands of soldiers and sailors would have died in vain and as would perhaps even more millions of people on the European continent who were waiting for the third front. It was almost certain that had the invasion failed the war would have ended later and with many more deaths. It might have ended with a settlement rather than unconditionally. Ike knew all that as he mulled his choices.

It appears that George Bush did not think long and hard on the consequences of anything but a happy outcome of his great decision. All of the long term implications and possibilities seem not to have been taken into account. The history and sociology of the society about to be invaded appears in retrospect to have been ignored. The most powerful man in the world was about to unleash the most potent force ever assembled. But in his personal hubris, all of the voices being raised in protest of the attack were about to be ignored.

The decision was made; the invasion took place; and Saddam’s government was easily toppled. George Bush’s decision was heralded, “Mission accomplished.”

Not so fast! In the blink of an eye, we became the occupiers of a broken country. George Bush went from being the most powerful man in Iraq to a captive of the situation. His presidency was doomed, and the self proclaimed `decider’ was caught in his own web.

Yes indeed, read that history but on the front end, damn it!

Blog on!

Wild Bill